World Cup 2026 Pre-Tournament Futures

Intro

All prices were current over the couple of days it took me to write this up. If you have different odds on offer or have slightly different lines, I'm attaching my thoughts for each play so you can determine on your own if the logic is worth following along with, playing for lower stakes at worse prices, or skipping altogether.

Units with futures are not as big as straight bets. I'm including unit sizing here to give a sense of roughly how much I'd bother staking per angle. Most of my action on the tournament will be via straight bets on individual matches, but I like diving through these pre-tournament markets and trying to be ahead on certain angles/teams/etc. Futures are more a fun way to augment the entertainment here, I like trying to find bigger prices and less obvious options. And I think it ends up being a good way to preview the tournament.

I'm leaving the top of the outright markets alone for now, but may revisit after a group stage round or two, depending on how the bracket is shaping up. I don't have a strong take on who wins this tournament, I can make cases for or against any of the top sides.

Speaking of brackets, the third place progressions are potentially huge curveballs for this tournament. I've done some basic sims based on my team ratings and the FIFA Annex system, to try to identify which "team x plays 3rd place team from group y most often" scenarios exist, but this obviously won't be perfect. It's hard enough to predict who will finish 3rd in a group, let alone which 3rd place teams will advance, and what way the round of 32 matches shake out - so we have to live with and account for this uncertainty.

Portfolio / Summary

Quick overview of all the plays for those who don't care to read the writeups... aka the TLDR section.

Main Angles:

1.75u Colombia [-110] To Make Round of 16
1.5u Belgium O9.5 Tournament Goals [-110]
1.5u Switzerland [-140] To Make Round of 16
1u South Korea U4.5 Tournament Goals [-105]
1u Ecuador U6.5 Tournament Goals [-130]
1u Tunisia Finish Bottom of Group F [-125]
1u Spain 1st, Uruguay 2nd - Group H Exact Finish [-150]

Punts:

0.2u South Korea to Finish 4th in Group A [+300]
0.1u Group A Exact Order - Mexico, Czechia, South Africa, South Korea [+900]
0.25u Czechia [+210] To Make Round of 16
0.25u Czechia [+1000] To Make Quarterfinals

0.3u Iran to Finish 4th in Group G [+300]
0.2u Belgium 1st, Iran 4th Group G [+450]
0.1u New Zealand to Finish 2nd in Group G [+700]
0.1u Top Asian/Oceanian Team - New Zealand [+1800]

0.1u Tunisia Exactly 0 Pts [+400]

0.5u Colombia [+700] To Make Semifinals
0.25u Colombia [+4500] Tournament Winner

0.1u Mexico [+8000] Tournament Winner

0.1u Turkiye [+20000] Tournament Winner

Most Assists:
0.2u James Rodriguez [+6600] Colombia
0.1u Bukayo Saka [+2800] England
0.1u Arda Guler [+6600] Turkiye
0.1u Cody Gakpo [+6600] Netherlands
0.1u Enzo Fernandez [+6600] Argentina
0.1u Lucas Paqueta [+6600] Brazil
0.1u Christian Pulisic [+10000] USA
0.1u Takefusa Kubo [+15000] Japan
0.1u Dan Ndoye [+25000] Switzerland

Young Player Award:
0.2u Arda Guler [+1600] Turkiye
0.2u Antonio Nusa [+2000] Norway
0.1u Johan Manzambi [+15000] Switzerland

Golden Glove:
0.4u Jordan Pickford Golden Glove [+750] England
0.3u Diogo Costa Golden Glove [+1000] Portugal
0.2u Manuel Neuer Golden Glove [+1600] Germany

To Be Eliminated in a Penalty Shootout:
0.25u Uruguay To Be Eliminated in a Penalty Shootout [+525]
0.25u Switzerland To Be Eliminated in a Penalty Shootout [+550]
0.25u Ecuador To Be Eliminated in a Penalty Shootout [+825]
0.25u Scotland To Be Eliminated in a Penalty Shootout [+900]

Golden Boot:
0.1u Charles De Ketelaere [+6600]

Top Team Goalscorer:
0.25u Marcel Sabitzer [+500] Austria Team Top Goalscorer
0.25u Federico Valverde [+600] Uruguay Team Top Goalscorer
0.25u Florian Wirtz [+625] Germany Team Top Goalscorer
0.25u Omar Marmoush [+375] Egypt Team Top Goalscorer
0.25u Akram Afif [+500] Qatar Team Top Goalscorer
0.1u Ismael Kone [+2000] Canada Team Top Goalscorer
0.1u Pavel Sulc [+800] Czechia Team Top Goalscorer
0.1u Ismaila Sarr [+800] Senegal Team Top Goalscorer
0.1u Antonio Nusa [+1800] Norway Team Top Goalscorer
0.1u Gustavo Gomez [+2500] Paraguay Team Top Goalscorer
0.1u Isak Hien [+3300] Sweden Team Top Goalscorer
0.1u Weston McKennie [+1200] USA Team Top Goalscorer
0.1u Harry Souttar [+1800] Australia Team Top Goalscorer

0.5u Highest Scoring Group - Group B [+1400]

0.5u Lowest Scoring Group - Group H [+1300]

Team/Group-Specific Angles:

1.5u Belgium O9.5 Tournament Goals [-110]

Belgium under Rudi Garcia are an attack-oriented team with a “we’ll score more than you” type of approach. Most of the talent in their squad is in forward positions and more creative midfielders - the defense is a question mark, which means they’re likely going to have to lean into that outscoring mentality more often than they’d prefer. This group should be straightforward for them, and while all of Egypt, Iran, and New Zealand will try to make things difficult, there is enough individual quality and 1v1 ability in this side to unlock a low block. Doku in particular is coming into this tournament in excellent form, and is an absolute livewire who profiles as the exact kind of player that can disrupt deep defensive lines through individual creation - but there is also the creative ability, crossing, and set pieces of KdB, the all-around output of Trossard, the between-lines play of CdK, the passing ability of Tielemans, very attacking fullback options, Lukaku off the bench, etc. It’s a team with tons of attacking ability that are in a very weak group, and they should thrive. Beyond that, they are set to play a third place side (likely from group A) as group G winners, and then would likely play the winner of Group D - this results in possibly the easiest first 5 match outlook for any team in the tournament, and notably, not much defensive resilience across the opponents they’re likely to play - Belgium can easily put up 3, 4, even 5 goals against any of the sides in their group, against the likes of South Korea, South Africa, Turkiye, USA, etc.

1u South Korea U4.5 Tournament Goals [-105]
0.2u South Korea to Finish 4th in Group A [+300]
0.1u Group A Exact Order - Mexico, Czechia, South Africa, South Korea [+900]

Group A sets up to be fairly low scoring on paper, and it’s favored in the lowest scoring group market. I don’t see this South Korean side as being able to do much to change that script. They had no troubles in qualifying, but played no teams of note. While their record in general over the past few years is good on paper, the opposition quality really is the big caveat hanging overhead. Even with friendlies included, they just haven’t played much decent competition - and when they have, it’s been underwhelming, particularly from a chance creation and goals scored standpoint. The team has also been pretty reliant on Son Heung-min, and to a lesser extent, Hwang Hee-chan, over the past several years, and both come into this tournament in very underwhelming club form. Son in particular is the talisman and face of this side, and has been very poor in MLS play. They play two very solid and physical sides in Czechia and Mexico who will be tough to break down, and both are sides that can disrupt the more technical way South Korea want to play. South Africa profiles as a more open match, but this just isn’t a high powered attack - not a single match in the past 4 years against decent opposition saw them score 3+ goals, and they average just about 1.3 xG in that sample. While it’s certainly in the realm of possibility that they can advance from this group and get a 4th match, with how I rate and rank this Korean side, I feel the price on U4.5 tournament goals should be shorter. South Korea have never advanced past the round of 16 outside of their 2002 hosting Cinderella run, are susceptible to physical styles of play like South Africa / Mexico will present and will struggle in aerial duels against Czechia.

South Africa are the most likely 4th place finishers here per the market, but South African football is on an upward trend, and I'm not quite as low on them as their prices suggest. Their domestic league has improved a lot in terms of money available, player quality/retention, and fan engagement. Mamelodi Sundowns just won the African Champions League, and the South African squad here has a huge cohort of players from Sundowns (as well as Orlando Pirates, the other powerhouse club in SA, who won the league this season). That continuity and chemistry directly off of successful club seasons might be very invaluable as far as cohesion goes. Sundowns also played at the Club World Cup in North America last summer, so plenty of players will be familiar with the logistics, weather, etc (they actually performed very well in that tournament when looking at the underlying data). Hugo Broos as manager is a bit of a controversial figure, but one who has coached teams to success and performances that feel bigger than the sum of their parts - most notably an AFCON win for Cameroon in 2017, and then multiple major tournament qualifications for South Africa after their reputation had been in tatters prior to his arrival.

0.25u Czechia [+210] To Make Round of 16
0.25u Czechia [+1000] To Make Quarterfinals

Keeping up with the Group A focus, Czechia are a side that profile to me as one that can outperform expectations and spring some surprises. First, the path - if they finish second in this group, they get the second placed side in Group B - a very winnable matchup. Beyond that, the round of 16 matchup would be a little bit trickier against a side like Netherlands, Japan, Brazil, or Morocco. I’m willing to disregard a lot of Czechia’s recent form and focus a little bit more on the manager they’ve brought in. Miroslav Koubek has a history of maximizing limited squads/resources and playing very pragmatic football, which suits this Czech side. They are hugely dangerous on set pieces and very tall/physical, which can be a major weapon in tournament football. They have a top striker in Patrik Schick, and he is now complemented by Pavel Sulc - who can create chances, score goals, and unlock a tight matchup (exactly what a more defensive & pragmatic team needs). There is plenty of experience in the side, and several players plying their trade in top 5 European leagues. 10 players in the squad play for Czech champions Slavia Prague, which adds some familiarity and squad rapport. While they could crash out in the group stages, if Koubek organizes them well and they make use of the aerial threat + Schick/Sulc combo, they can advance from this group and be awkward/dangerous opponents who can upset a bigger team on the right day.

1u Ecuador U6.5 Tournament Goals [-130]

Ecuador seem to be one of the primary contenders for “#1 public dark horse” at this World Cup, and as such, I won’t go into the details on why they’re a compelling pick to make a run. The team definitely has merit as a side that can cause a lot of problems, and any team that can finish 2nd in CONMEBOL qualifying (with a 3 point penalty against them!) is capable of winning games at a World Cup. However, it’s also quite clear that if they do that, it will come via an airtight defense, vs any kind of free flowing attack. In fact, the attack is a major question mark heading into this tournament. They scored just 3 goals (while also only conceding 3) in 9 away matches in qualifying - this is relevant because Ecuador have a big home altitude advantage. Their underlying metrics are not particularly great, with a pretty sizable outperformance of xG. They’re heavily reliant on 36 year old Enner Valencia up front, and there isn’t much of a creative spark in the side. They kick things off with what should be an incredibly physical and tense match against their competition for 2nd place in Ivory Coast, then will have to do most of their scoring against Curacao, before a match against Germany. I’d say they are likely to finish the group stage on something like 3 goals, and I just don’t trust this side to rack up goals once the opposition really gets tougher across one or two knockout stage matches. While Ecuador certainly profile as a side that can cause major problems for a bigger team, they’re almost certainly going to do that via 0-0s than 2-2s. This almost feels set a goal too high to me, unless they’re able to demolish Curacao - not impossible, but not really in their DNA either, with just 5 of their last 50 matches seeing them score 3+ (albeit not always against opposition as weak as Curacao).

1.5u Switzerland [-140] To Make Round of 16

I would be shocked if Switzerland didn’t make it out of the group stage. They’re very likely winners of group B, and if nothing else would likely be able to make it through as a 2nd or best 3rd place side as well. None of the rd of 32 opponents they’re likely to come up against with the expected permutations are particularly intimidating - most likely to get group G/J’s 3rd place side if finishing first, and 2nd place from group A if finishing second. Even a third place finish would most likely have them up against the winner of group D (a weak group without a major pot 1 threat). All of those sides present very winnable matches for Switzerland. They’re a very experienced squad, there isn’t really a weak point in the team, at least not for the level of play they’ll need to progress to the round of 16 and the opponents they’ll face in those first four games. Their numbers over the last 4 years against teams in that type of opposition range are very strong, and I have them with just 3 losses in 23 matches across that sample and a goal difference of +0.9/gm. This is a very dependable team who don’t seem likely to fall short of their expectations - an exit before the round of 16 would be a big disappointment for this side. Switzerland probably lack the ceiling for a deep run, they tend to be able to cause one big team problems before going out - but that’s not what we’re needing here - this is just a matter of qualifying out of the group and taking care of business against a team they’ll likely be favored against at a shorter price than -140, so I have value in this number.

Group G / Top Asian & Oceanian Team:
0.3u Iran to Finish 4th in Group G [+300]
0.2u Belgium 1st, Iran 4th Group G [+450]
0.1u New Zealand to Finish 2nd in Group G [+700]
0.1u Top Asian/Oceanian Team - New Zealand [+1800]

This bet is largely a fade of Iran and a willingness to give New Zealand some hope of producing a surprise (which could look very foolish one match in).

Iran really look up against it at this tournament to me. If they have one thing going for them it will be playing their first two matches in Los Angeles, which limits distance traveled and also gives them a home advantage (LA is the largest population center for people of Iranian descent outside Iran). Apart from that, the odds are really stacked against them.

They are without Sardar Azmoun, arguably their best player and certainly one half of their attack. In particular, he is their more creative talisman, and now all the burden will fall on Mehdi Taremi, almost 34 years old. Azmoun was the G+A leader with 9 for this side in my sample of relevant matches (Taremi had 8, no one else had more than 3) and is out of the squad due to a political post which caused controversy. It’s a massive blow for a side already short on attacking quality and heavily reliant on the Azmoun/Taremi duo. Their next most well known and prolific player, Alireza Jahanbakhsh, comes into the tournament as an injury doubt, too.
It’s well known now, but the logistics for Iran are hugely complicated by the ongoing US Iran conflict. The squad is staying in Tijuana, Mexico as a result, and is only allowed to enter the US in the 24-48 hours before matches. While Tijuana to LA is not hugely inconvenient travel-wise, the lack of a real home base is, and it wouldn’t surprise me whatsoever if they were given a hard time crossing the border once their matches roll around. They already have members of staff who have been denied visas/entry.
The squad consists of a lot of domestic league players, and Iranian club football has been on pause since February, meaning 17 of their 26 players haven’t played competitive club football for around 4 months.
This is the second oldest squad in the tournament with an average age of 29.8. When you combine that with the lack of match sharpness, the potential fitness concerns, and the summer heat, there is a chance this team struggles in the second halves in particular.

I’m hardly enamored with this New Zealand team, but I think there is just value in terms of these prices and the tournament situation overall. They’re not going to outplay any sides, but the group they find themselves in is very friendly - Belgium are certainly one of the weaker group favorites (albeit I still expect them to finish first here), and crucially, New Zealand get them in the final group match where they may benefit from Belgian rotation. They also play Iran in the opener, and could benefit from the lack of match sharpness many of the Iranian based players may suffer from.

While New Zealand lack depth I’d actually rate the upper half of their squad (their starting XI) as comparable or better than what Iran are bringing, and I don’t think the Egyptian team is particularly great apart from Marmoush & Salah, either. This is not the semi-pro laden side New Zealand brought to the tournament in 2010, they now have plenty of players plying their trade in the mid tier of European leagues (English Championship, Scandinavian leagues, etc), so there is some quality there, headlined by Chris Wood - who spent a lot of this season injured, but was excellent for Nottingham Forest the year prior (the time off this season may help him going into this World Cup at age 34).

With 2nd/3rd spot in this group being open and Iran & Egypt both seeing New Zealand as a side they’ll need 3 points against, I think New Zealand will benefit from being able to absorb pressure and look for their moments. While some will look at their 4-0 loss to Haiti in the buildup, I actually think getting a terrible outcome like that out of the system before any competitive matches start is a plus, and they’ve had decent friendly results apart from that (including only losing 1-0 to England). This is not a good team by any stretch, but they don’t need to be to compete and do alright in this group. They will take solace from having not lost any games in 2010 (with a much worse squad, and against better opponents), and that same mentality will be in play here.

For the continental angle, it just comes down to me not being particularly high on any AFC/OFC team in this tournament. Japan are favorites in this market at +100, but I think they have a tricky group and a slightly offputting amount of public dark horse buzz. The absences of Mitoma and Minamino are also pretty big. 1st/2nd in Group F should get Brazil/Morocco, which is very tough. South Korea are a side I’m OK fading, I acknowledge that I could be off on that and that upside exists for whatever team shows up well in Group A, but this play on NZ is +1800 for a reason. None of the other sides ahead of New Zealand in the market - Iran, Australia, Saudi Arabia, Qatar - really fill me with much optimism for a run (or even group stage advancement), either. Considering dead heat rules apply on this market, the number is worth a gamble.

2nd place in this group gets the 2nd place side in Group D (USA, Turkiye, Paraguay, Australia - pretty friendly), and while I don’t give New Zealand any shot of progressing beyond that, it’s possible that the top AFC/OFC side only needs to win one knockout round if either Japan/Korea fall short of expectations.

1u Tunisia Finish Bottom of Group F [-125]
0.1u Tunisia Exactly 0 Pts [+400]

I think Tunisia are comfortably the worst team in this group. The Netherlands and Japan both have pretty decent claims for making genuine runs in this tournament, and while Sweden had a pretty terrible stretch of performances in qualifying (making the WC on a bit of a technicality), they're still a far more talented squad than Tunisia with real top end threat in Gyokeres/Isak, and have some potential for improved quality of output now under the guidance of Graham Potter - a Premier League caliber manager who knows Swedish football very well and who earned his stripes in the Allsvenskan. Tunisia qualified without conceding a goal, but it was a ridiculously weak group, and their numbers against decent sides over the last 4 years are very poor, failing to win a single match in that time. They come into the tournament in uninspiring form and were just thrashed by Belgium 5-0 in their final tune-up. There are some pretty notable omissions from the squad against what was expected, and the reaction in the Tunisian football media/community has been rather negative. While they will look to defend for their lives and scrape for points, I just don't think they have the quality to compete in what is a very decent group as far as individual talent is concerned.

1u Spain 1st, Uruguay 2nd - Group H Exact Finish [-150]

While it's the favorite in the forecast market for Group H, I'm having a hard time seeing this group play out in any other way. Spain and Uruguay are just a class above the other two sides here. Spain have the better group logistics here, with two matches indoors in Atlanta, whereas Uruguay will have two matches in the heat & humidity of Miami, before the two face off in the altitude of Guadalajara. Spain are already shorter than -150 to win that particular match, and I think things set up well for Spain to deliver on that. Yamal and Nico Williams will have likely gotten some minutes and match sharpness at that stage - crucial for Spain's attacking outlook... and on the flip side Bielsa's style of play is pretty physically grueling - the short turnaround after matches in Miami and then traveling to play the best possession team in the tournament in altitude (with a squad that doesn't have a ton of rotation options)... it certainly favors Spain. And even a point is probably enough for them to win the group - if both are on 6 points at that stage, Spain will likely have managed a better goal differential than Uruguay.

1.75u Colombia [-110] To Make Round of 16
0.5u Colombia [+700] To Make Semifinals
0.25u Colombia [+4500] Tournament Winner

The winner of group K has massive upside, likely playing the third place side from group L, before likely playing the winner of group B. Both of those could be very soft KO round fixtures. Colombia have the ability to win group K ahead of Portugal, and if they do that and unlock this route, the 45/1 is going to look absurdly big. Colombia were excellent in CONMEBOL qualifying, although they finished in a 4 way tie for 3rd place on 28 points, they were an elite team per the underlying data. This has been the case across other competitions too, including a run to the final of Copa America, where they lost in extra time to Argentina. This is one of the strongest teams in this tournament for matches against WC quality opponents over the last 2-4 years, and they’ll also have a massive crowd supporting them in many matches at this tournament. They will be fine playing in the heat, they are brutally difficult to play against and beat in 90 minutes, and they have genuine star quality to fall back to in matches that need a moment. The downside is they’d likely get Spain in the round of 16 if they were to finish 2nd in the group behind Portugal - not impossible, but a whole lot more difficult than the 1K route.

0.1u Mexico [+8000] Tournament Winner

The ceiling case for Mexico also involves winning their group (which they are about -140 to do). They’d have by far the most absurd advantage in this WC if they do that, as they’d play 4 of their 5 initial matches in CDMX - where they benefit from a hugely passionate home crowd, a massive elevation advantage (especially being acclimatized, vs the teams just coming in and playing one match there), and no real travel (their non CDMX game is in Guadalajara). That potential round of 16 matchup, likely against England, is absolutely a spot they could be live underdogs in. This is a genuinely decent side, with plenty of experience, a bit of young star quality, and a very solid recent record that is backed up by strong underlying metrics against the better sides in the world. Group A is a bit tricky, and the host country pressure could hurt them if they don’t get off to a good start - but an opener against South Africa is all they can ask for as far as getting things underway with 3 points, and from there the momentum could really build. In Javier Aguirre they have an experienced manager who has led this side at World Cups before, they’re off the back of winning the CONCACAF Gold Cup and Nations League, and represented well at Copa America despite the group stage exit - comfortably outplaying this WC’s dark horse darlings in Ecuador, as well as Venezuela and Jamaica. Mexico won’t win this tournament, but the 80/1 offers a lot of trading options if they can make their potential route to some major home advantage count.

0.1u Turkiye [+20000] Tournament Winner

This Turkiye number is long gone - I shared that one back when they were halfway through and just had Kosovo to beat in the qualifying playoffs. I do love this price, it’s one to hedge out of later on more than an expectation Turkiye can actually win this - but there is some genuine attacking stardust in this side, and arguably the most exciting trio of young attacking players in the tournament via Guler, Yildiz, and Uzun, as well as a pretty experienced supporting cast elsewhere. They’re in the very friendly group D, could easily win it, and then would have a friendly round of 32 matchup before probably playing arguably the weakest pot 1 team in Belgium. Beyond that point, who knows - but the upside here at 200/1 was too much to pass up on. They can be frail defensively, they could crash out in the group stages, and we’ve all been burned by expecting them to put any kind of dark horse run together in the past… but the upside exists with the squad talent and a very underrated manager in Vincenzo Montella.

Most Assists:

0.2u James Rodriguez [+6600] Colombia
0.1u Bukayo Saka [+2800] England
0.1u Arda Guler [+6600] Turkiye
0.1u Cody Gakpo [+6600] Netherlands
0.1u Enzo Fernandez [+6600] Argentina
0.1u Lucas Paqueta [+6600] Brazil
0.1u Christian Pulisic [+10000] USA
0.1u Takefusa Kubo [+15000] Japan
0.1u Dan Ndoye [+25000] Switzerland

This is a very open award. The 2022 WC was shared by 5 players on 3 assists (including Ivan Perisic of Croatia as an “outsider”), and the 2018 WC was shared by a huge number of players on 2 assists. Previous editions of the tournament have been won with 4 assists - so it really doesn’t take a lot to contend in this market. With the extra KO round match, the lesser competition involved, and the worldwide shift to “set pieces matter” that’s unfolded successfully at the club level, I think 4-6 assists likely wins it this time around.

What I’m angling for here is players who have very high usage within each side. Players who should absolutely dominate minutes and chance creation - both from open play, as well as some set pieces. All of these players have decent chance creation metrics in my sample of relevant matches per team (filtering into the quality of opposition you can expect at a WC). I think that’s the main thing you want for some value here in a market that can easily be won by a non-obvious candidate who isn’t a top favorite in the betting. I also think that all of the players listed above likely need to have key roles and big tournaments if their teams are to score goals / go deep, so there is some natural symbiosis there, too.

Young Player Award:

0.2u Arda Guler [+1600] Turkiye
0.2u Antonio Nusa [+2000] Norway
0.1u Johan Manzambi [+15000] Switzerland

I won’t get too much into the details here, just a few bigger priced plays for me. I’d fully expect Yamal to win this award as the young player most likely to have a starring role on a side that makes a legitimate run, but if Spain were to disappoint, I don’t think the second tier of favorites here are necessarily locked in to have major roles (Doue, WZE, O’Reilly, etc) and the options beyond that get very open very quickly. Yamal also comes into the tournament with an injury and some doubt over his fitness, although I’d expect him to be fine based on the latest chatter.

Guler is the main one here, but also the shortest price. I think he could be the absolute breakthrough star for Turkiye here, and if they cause any commotion via a win or two in the KO rounds, they’ll do so with their attack, and Guler will be the hub of that. He’s already extremely high usage for them, above 0.5 G+A/90 in my match sample and with 2.5 key passes per 90 as well. That should only continue to rise considering his development and 6 goal 14 assist season for Real Madrid.
Nusa is a player I’m covering in a top team goalscorer punt as well, but he almost looks like the 2nd option for Norway in the last couple of matches I’ve watched - Odegaard is really more of a tempo setter and distributor, and Sorloth plays cleanup alongside Haaland. While Haaland is obviously the focal point and goalscorer, it’s been Nusa who looks like he’s stepped up and become the outlet. He’s fast and beats players for fun 1v1 on the dribble, then gets plenty of crosses and shots off. It’s really apparent that the Norwegians already look for him regularly, and his pace is vital for the counter heavy direct style they play. If Norway do anything in this tournament, I expect Nusa will play a role.
Finally, Manzambi. Hugely regarded, likely in line for a big move in the next 12 months or so. Had an excellent season for Freiburg and was a big part of their run to the Europa League final. With Shaqiri no longer in the squad, Switzerland will look to Manzambi as one of the options for the bit of flair and ingenuity in the final third. Yakin already trusts him and it seems he’ll get plenty of minutes. I like Group B to be open and Switzerland will be favorites in all their matches. I think they’d be disappointed not to play 5 matches in this tournament, and Manzambi could very well start 4-5 of those and has the upside to put up meaningful statistical output, as well as catch the eye via his individual ability, dribbling, and style.

Golden Glove:

0.4u Jordan Pickford Golden Glove [+750] England
0.3u Diogo Costa Golden Glove [+1000] Portugal
0.2u Manuel Neuer Golden Glove [+1600] Germany

This award goes to the best goalkeeper of the tournament, and generally goes hand in hand with the goalkeeper of a team that makes a deeper run (semifinals or beyond). While not directly tied to clean sheets, a deeper run obviously affords each goalkeeper more of a chance to pick up shutouts - and generally it takes 4 or 5 to win this. That may settle at 5 as a minimum considering the extra round, and it wouldn’t totally stun me to see a GK with 6 or even 7 considering the larger tournament has lowered the median quality of opposition.

Pickford and Costa are two GKs I could see putting up strong claims. Both are in groups where the attacking threat from opponents is a bit limited. Both benefit from fairly friendly draws into the quarterfinals were they to win their groups (which they are favored to do). There’s a world where one of these two can pick up 4 clean sheets in the first 5 matches, and at that point you’re in a very strong position. While I don’t think either England or Portugal have the best defenses in the tournament, if I’m simming out group stage and likely early tournament paths, I just can’t get to the jump in prices that we see for these two versus the top four in the market (Emi Martinez, Unai Simon, Alisson, Mike Maignan - I can poke holes in each of them from a team defense + opposition quality standpoint).

Similarly, Neuer - while a contentious pick from Nagelsmann as far as bringing him back in as German #1 - is also well set up for this. The German defensive structure is far from airtight, but they play 3 sides in the group stages who aren’t attacking juggernauts by any means, and then would play a 3rd place side in the first KO round assuming they get through as group winners. At 16/1, for a team that could also make a deeper run - but realistically would only do so if the defensive structure can step up - I am happy to take this price.

Notably, I think all 3 of Pickford, Costa, and Neuer have some intangibles in their favor - Pickford is a player who stands out (in a team that isn’t full of characters) and has some charisma on the pitch (albeit I think he’s a total weirdo), Costa has an excellent penalty kick record (which can be massive for this), and Neuer is essentially the GK associated with this whole shift to goalkeepers that can also play with their feet, and is known for some adventurous/standout moments. That matters for this kind of award.

Ultimately, I just think the top of the market is too short / concentrated, and there are keepers in that second tier that have a very legitimate shot at this per the group setup & bracketology.

If you want a total longshot in this market, I’d go with Jose Raul Rangel or Guillermo Ochoa of Mexico (about 80/1). There’s been a gauntlet of keepers who have had chances as Mexican #1 since Ochoa’s vicegrip hold on the position ended, and Rangel is the latest in that line - however, there is now doubt over which of the two actually starts for Mexico at this tournament, and some journalists are saying it could be Memo Ochoa after all. So you'd want to wait until Thursday and lineups to see who will get the starting job. Regardless, I think Group A playing out rather low scoring is highly probable, and Mexico themselves have no qualms about playing out tighter matches. If Mexico can make a run in this tournament, they likely do so with a well organized defensive structure, trademark of manager Javier Aguirre. So in a world of low scoring Group A, Mexico winning and playing in CDMX altitude for 4/5 matches to start the tournament, an upset or two thrown in the mix and likely driven by a strong defensive base that absorbs a decent amount of shots and forces saves - I think Rangel/Ochoa could make a case for GG, especially with any host nation voting love thrown in the mix - ESPECIALLY if it's Ochoa, who just has that extra level of fan love and sport nostalgia surrounding him.

Penalty Shootout Elimination:

0.25u Uruguay To Be Eliminated in a Penalty Shootout [+525]
0.25u Switzerland To Be Eliminated in a Penalty Shootout [+550]
0.25u Ecuador To Be Eliminated in a Penalty Shootout [+825]
0.25u Scotland To Be Eliminated in a Penalty Shootout [+900]

Bit speculative here, but I’m hoping to cash one of these and will be very happy if 2+ get over the line. My thinking here is that I want a side who can get through their group, then play in a competitive manner across one or two knockout stage matches. I want a side that can be terrible to play against for 120 minutes - whether that is through physicality, spirit, tactical stability, experience/solidity, etc. There are some weather angles here as well, where a couple of these sides could be contesting a KO game or two in heat/humidity, which naturally slows down play and lends itself a little bit more to a cagey lower-event draw where teams eventually “settle” a bit more for pens. Ecuador and Uruguay will be horrible to play against, I could see them getting a 0-0 out of any team in this competition on physicality alone, turning matches into wars and foul-fests. Switzerland have a record of cashing this bet in major tournaments - coming up just short against the elite sides in recent editions of the World Cup & Euros, and there isn’t a whole lot to say that should change this time around. Scotland have a path out of Group C with Haiti there as a potential 3 points, and 3rd place gets them a list of potential opponents that aren’t so much better than them - to where I’m comfortable backing them at this price for a penalty shootout exit.

Golden Boot:

0.1u Charles De Ketelaere [+6600] Golden Boot

CdK is flying a bit under the radar for Belgium. He’s hardly been prolific for the national team with just 6 goals in 30 appearances, but the key is that 4 of those have come in the past 6 months or so, where he’s been Belgium’s center forward. With Lukaku not match sharp, CdK should start and any kind of scoring form would see him hold on to the position. He’s more of a second striker than a true #9, but he can certainly do a job in front of goal, and this Belgium side have plenty of attacking firepower - and a very friendly group stage to score some goals in. With the likes of Doku, Tielemans, KdB, etc all creating behind him, I think the starting forward for Belgium is a decent play in the Golden Boot market - especially as Belgium could very easily get to 5 matches in this tournament before playing a team they have to fear, and may even get defensively weaker sides like Turkiye or the USA in the KO rounds. This is a play with a much lower floor but a potentially high ceiling, so I’m taking a punt with the tournament top scorer market rather than Belgium specifically.

Team Top Goalscorer:

While Golden Boot is very likely to be won by a market favorite - someone with a clear scoring role and locked into minutes for a side expected to go far - I think the top team goalscorer market offers a bit more value or interest for me. Several sides will score just 1 goal across the tournament, plenty will score just 2, and thus it doesn’t necessarily take much to win a bet here - in some cases at some pretty appealing prices. Dead heat rules apply for this market, so for a team that scores two goals across two players, just having one of them will net you decent profits.

0.25u Marcel Sabitzer [+500] Austria Team Top Goalscorer

Sabitzer was already a crucial part of this Austrian team, but I think the reliance on him grew even more following the injury to Christoph Baumgartner. Much of the goalscoring Austria has done in the past few years has been from ageless forward Marko Arnautovic, striker Michael Gregoritsch, and then their two attack minded midfielders in Sabitzer and Baumgartner. No one else in the side really comes close from a production perspective, and Sabitzer/Baumgartner also provided lots of the chance creation alongside their goal output. While Argentina will be tough opponents to break down, matches against Algeria and Jordan should provide plenty of looks for Austria, and I think they’re pretty live to get a KO round game or two - they're a team with very good recent underlying metrics against a solid caliber of opponents. Sabitzer is going to be the hub of this team and splits penalty duties with Arnautovic (who is unlikely to go 90 minutes per match at his age). He has been averaging about 0.5 goals/90, 3.3 shots/90, and takes direct free kicks as well. Sabitzer can play a little bit deeper at times for Austria as more of a tempo-setter, but with Baumgartner’s absence I just think the market is underpricing the attacking load he’ll be shouldering, and how much of a centerpiece he’ll be in any attacking play from Austria.

0.25u Federico Valverde [+600] Uruguay Team Top Goalscorer

The latest news out of the Uruguay camp suggests that Bielsa will set up with Valverde playing right wing, as opposed to operating out of a central midfield position. While he would have been an attacking outlet for Uruguay as a CM anyways, with a designated shift to playing further forward, I think he’ll shoulder more of a scoring burden for this side now and have more license to stay up front. I have a bit more of a preview on Uruguay in the lowest scoring group play later on, but I do think this is a side desperate for someone to provide goals, and while Darwin Nunez is the obvious threat as the #9, he is chaotic and pretty unreliable at +200 for this market, especially coming off the back of a domestic campaign in the Saudi Pro League where he hasn’t played following the mid-season acquisition of Karim Benzema and is now looking for a new club. On the one hand, this might mean he plays for a summer move, on the other hand, it doesn’t necessarily inspire confidence in a player who can be great on his day and terrible on many others. Valverde is much more of a consistent force, he has a rocket of a shot on him as well, and I think +600 fails to account for his more attacking role and the lack of clear options Uruguay have up front. He's also the one from this top team goalscorer list I'd maybe consider for a Golden Boot "total punt" type of play at 150/1.

0.25u Florian Wirtz [+625] Germany Team Top Goalscorer

This is a play on Nagelsmann being manager, and the lack of a clear first option at #9 for Germany. I think we’ll see all of Havertz, Undav, and Woltemade get minutes, whereas Wirtz should be a starter who goes 90 in most matches. Nagelsmann sides tend to have a little bit more of a goal share from attacking midfielders and wide players, and Wirtz just feels like he has to be the attacker that steps up for his country. While Sane and Musiala are appealing in this market too, Sane is not a player I care to put any faith in, and Musiala is not quite in the mercurial form he had prior to his injury, with limited minutes this season. Wirtz disappointed for a completely disjointed Liverpool side at club level following the record transfer fee, but playing with the national team in a tournament Germany could do fairly well in and under a savvy manager who knows how to get the most out of his attacking midfielders and wide #10s should offer a chance at some redemption. Wirtz has 11 goals in 24 matches with >45 minutes played under Nagelsmann, a pretty decent hit rate, and should get a massive share of minutes if he is performing well - there is not much competition for places on the left wing for the Germans.

0.25u Omar Marmoush [+375] Egypt Team Top Goalscorer

Salah is the leader in this market at around evens, but I think there is a little bit too much of name-brand value carrying those odds. Marmoush has the stronger shot numbers per 90 for Egypt, and also is a bit ahead on goals per 90 against relevant competition over the last couple of years. Salah has had a very underwhelming season at Liverpool and looks far from his best. While you can argue similarly for Marmoush, he was more a case of being unable to get into the City best XI - and he’s hardly the first quality player that has happened to. Marmoush is entering his prime, whereas Salah is past his best. Marmoush also plays far more centrally, and while he suffers in this market via not being on penalties, I still think nearly 4/1 on this is off.

0.25u Akram Afif [+500] Qatar Team Top Goalscorer

Going back to Group B (where I’m optimistic on goal output), Afif should be the first in the market for Qatar. His goal/90, shot/90, shot on target/90 profile clearly leads Qatar. He’s at the heart of everything Qatar do going forward and started every match in my sample of relevant matches, putting up ~0.6 goals/90 minutes. The market has Almoez Ali as the shorter price, but he’s had enormous injury problems in the past 12 months, making just 8 appearances. While he’s more of the true #9 up front, Afif is the talisman of this side and should be market favorite here. He’s the best player in this squad and heartbeat of Qatar’s attacking play.

0.1u Ismael Kone [+2000] Canada Team Top Goalscorer

Bit of a punt here at a big price, but think this is an interesting play. Kone is still very young but his profile continues to grow, and he comes into this tournament after having had a very good season at club level for Sassuolo. Marsch trusts him to be the attacking wild card in midfield, and he’ll be tasked with making some of those later runs into the box, looking for moments to create or shoot, he can manufacture space. He’s not a prolific goalscorer by any stretch, but managed 6 goals in 35 Serie A appearances this season. Critically, Canada are really lacking a clear top goalscorer candidate - Jonathan David has been very out of form of late, and no other player in the squad has ever managed a stretch of scoring consistency at national team level. This market is wide open, and I think Group B lends itself well to goals. One of the second strikers (Promise David, Cyle Larin, or Tani Oluwaseyi) all fit the description of players who could break through with a couple of goals - but it's hard to know who Marsch will turn to for starts or substitute appearances as the partner for David. Meanwhile, Kone should play regularly, and finding the net a couple of times is entirely within the realms of possibility with the more free-role Canada might need him to play.

0.1u Pavel Sulc [+800] Czechia Team Top Goalscorer

Another play where the market leader just feels too short to me. While Schick has tournament history and will be the focal point up front, Sulc is coming off a fantastic domestic season for Lyon where he emerged with 14 goals in 38 appearances, a goal every 165 minutes or so. He has a good record for the national team too, with 5 goals in 14 matches playing >45 minutes over the last couple of years. Schick is ahead on goals/90 in my relevant sample, 0.4 to 0.35, and has slightly more shot output as well, but it’s not nearly enough to justify this jump in price. Group A could very well be low scoring, and Czechia are not going to be a particularly enterprising side, so this is a team that could very well only score 1 or 2 in the tournament overall. Sulc is going to be involved for them in attack, at 8/1 I’m happy to try this one.

0.1u Ismaila Sarr [+800] Senegal Team Top Goalscorer

Sarr averaged nearly 2 shots per 90 and 1 shot on target per 90 for Palace over the last two seasons, and thrives when given space to utilize his pace. That could well be the case in this group - the match against Norway profiles as one where his breakaway speed could well be in play, and he may get looks on the counter against France (in possibly the most favorable 1v1 matchup for Senegal, against Digne). While he isn’t a guaranteed starter and faces competition from the like of Iliman Ndiaye in particular, he finished top for goals/90 in my last 2 year sample for Senegal, and averages over 1 SoT/90 and 2 shots/90 for the national team in that time. Coming off the bench once or twice may not be the worst thing either, as the pace he offers can be very valuable late in matches against tired defenders.

0.1u Antonio Nusa [+1800] Norway Team Top Goalscorer

Haaland is of course a massive favorite in this market and put up absurd numbers in qualifying, but Nusa’s stock is very much on the rise and he managed impressive numbers for the national team as well. I have him at 0.65 goals/90, and notably, 3.7 shots/90 and 1.5 SoT/90, which is very high for a winger and reflective of a heavy usage, elite wide attacker type of profile. Norway clearly trust him as a 2nd/3rd option in attack behind Haaland, and while this is definitely a longshot, there’s also a chance that all the focus from France, Senegal, and Iraq defensively is on Haaland, which can open space up for other players. Haaland is no stranger to going long spells without touching the ball, and has had dry patches at even a side as elite as Man City. I’ve watched Nusa a few times recently and he just looks really confident - I could see him having a tournament very similar to Cody Gakpo at the last Euros, who actually finished tied for the tournament Golden Boot - he's the same profile of a dribbly left winger who will cut inside and shoot at will. I want some stock in Nusa at this tournament.

0.1u Gustavo Gomez [+2500] Paraguay Team Top Goalscorer
0.1u Isak Hien [+3300] Sweden Team Top Goalscorer
0.1u Weston McKennie [+1200] USA Team Top Goalscorer
0.1u Harry Souttar [+1800] Australia Team Top Goalscorer

One more angle I’m going to shoot for here are a couple of bigger/physical players from teams that may very well only score a goal or two at the tournament. We are in an era of set pieces being as much of a focus as they have been at any point in the last couple of decades. This is translating to the national teams as well, and will be seen as a potential way in for several of the lesser sides. For the players below, one goal might very well be enough to win or share the top team goalscoring honors - goals for Paraguay, Sweden, USA, and Australia are all likely to be either minimal and/or distributed - with some signal that set pieces will be a focus for each.

Gomez is a force on set pieces, and Paraguay will look to maximize that route, with a very capable dead-ball merchant in Miguel Almiron. He averages a 0.1 goals/game across his career (very impressive as a CB), put up a season in Brazil with 9 goals in 30 appearances in 2022 as a CB (very very impressive), and just generally has strong shot output for Paraguay, largely coming from those set piece moments.

Sweden brought in Andreas Georgson for their coaching staff alongside Graham Potter’s introduction, he’s a bit of a set piece specialist - most recently, Spurs had a strong season on dead balls this year with his guidance (after being awful in prior years). Hien does not have a particularly good goalscoring record at club level by any means, but he is very imposing aerially and could be a bit of a target for whatever corners and set plays the Swedes get.

The US has also focused quite a bit on set pieces over the last few years, bringing in some specialists and generally being a very athletic side. McKennie is a goalscoring threat apart from the set pieces, which helps here, but with there not being a clear every-game CB option as long as Chris Richards is not 100% match sharp or doubtful, I’m happy to slot McKennie in as that player for the USA - clear set piece threat, but as a bonus, also an option from open play.

Finally, Souttar is a 6’6” CB for Australia, who are really lacking in terms of forward quality. The market for this team is very much open, and they absolutely fit the mold of a team that may just score once at the tournament. Popovic is a detail oriented manager - he knows their only shot of progression is defensive solidity and capitalizing on moments like set pieces. Souttar will absolutely be a target.

Highest & Lowest Scoring Groups:

0.5u Highest Scoring Group - Group B [+1400]

I think this is a very open group, every team here will fancy their chances of advancing or even winning the group. That’s massive for this, as I don’t think there will be as much of the “play for a draw” mentality here as elsewhere.
My ratings have Qatar & BIH as two of the worst defensive sides in the tournament, while Canada also make the bottom 20 - and losing Moise Bombito for the tournament is a massive blow for them at the back.
Weather is friendly here too, the only “heat spots” are Canada’s opener against BIH in Toronto (which doesn’t look too bad, and should be offset by it being the WC opener for Canada), and then possibly Switzerland v BIH in Los Angeles.
Switzerland are a fairly sound side, but they aren’t dominant enough to impose their will entirely, and as a tactically flexible outfit, often end up accommodating for whatever the opposition style is like. That lends itself well for this bet as I’m expecting plenty of those higher event matches considering those defensive frailties and the “anyone can advance” element. Switzerland also average nearly 2 GF/gm in my sample of relevant matches for this group, with a 60% BTTS hit rate.
Qatar operate with years of Iberian coaching influence, trying to play a very Spain-esque style but lacking the quality to do so effectively. They’ll get the ball on the floor and look to play positively, ultimately leading them to be rather open. As mentioned, their defensive process against better sides is very poor, and in 20 relevant matches I have them at 65% for both O2.5 and BTTS hit rates, with 40% for O3.5, and total xG of ~3/gm.
Canada play more of the Red Bull style under Jesse Marsch, high octane and energetic pressing, forward thinking, etc. It’s hard to read too much into their data as Marsch has been there for only a couple of years and they’ve played largely friendlies in that time, the competitive matches vs decent sides are very limited - but as a host country playing in front of their supporters and with the way this 11 shapes up (pace, a bit of flair, very direct & up-tempo, defensively soft), they should be very action-oriented.
Excluding two matches against San Marino, Bosnia & Herzegovina have only kept 3 clean sheets in 20 matches under manager Sergej Barbarez, those coming against Hungary, Romania, and North Macedonia. While their default may not be to play gung-ho, I just think the group dynamics and their defensive problems will lead to them opening up as well, and their scoring record over the last 4 years when filtering into the level of opposition they’ll play here gives me confidence. They also have some exciting young attackers that have emerged in Alajbegovic and Bajraktarević alongside two very capable strikers in national talisman Dzeko and Stuttgart’s Demirovic.
Another dynamic I like here is that Bosnia play Qatar on the last day, and that could be a very open match if both sides are needing 3 points to have a chance of qualifying - Bosnia are the stronger side, but their travel/logistics schedule is awful, and by that third match it will give Qatar more of a chance of causing them problems.

0.5u Lowest Scoring Group - Group H [+1300]

This group has 2 matches in Miami, 1 in Houston, and 1 in Guadalajara. The combination of heat/humidity and even altitude definitely has the potential to slow games down. Spain do benefit from playing two games indoor in Atlanta against the group minnows, but apart from that, the others could turn into slogs.
Spain have doubts over the fitness of both Lamine Yamal and Nico Williams, who enter the tournament as injury doubts. I can’t imagine there will be much desire to overuse either of them in the group stages, as they’re so critical for the later tournament upside this team has, and the verticality, width, and individual ability they provided were pivotal to Spain winning Euro 2024. Even if they are available from the first minute onwards, Williams has had a poor club season and Yamal hasn’t played a competitive match for a couple of months, so I wouldn’t expect 100% sharpness from either. Elsewhere, Spain have a bit of an unorthodox attacking approach, and if the two of them aren’t fully at it, I’m not sure they have quite as much flair elsewhere to create at the level the market may be expecting here. They’ve been held 1-1 by Iraq and 0-0 by Egypt in recent friendlies, and their 3 matches in the Euro 2024 group stages produced just 5 goals. I could see them making use of their incredible midfield options and playing a possession heavy style against the low blocks of their opponents to just whittle teams down without overexpending energy themselves.
Uruguay come into this tournament in pretty mixed form. The squad will be very hard working and physical, which is the absolute minimum you can expect from a Bielsa side, but there is a lack of quality up front for them. Gone are the days of Forlan, Suarez, Cavani, etc. Uruguay managed just 6 goals in 9 away matches in CONMEBOL qualifying (those matches averaged just 1.55 goals/game overall), and in the buildup to this tournament they’ve only scored 2+ or more in 3 of their last 10. It’s a side where the quality and name brand value comes more from very industrious midfielders and solid defenders. It appears they will be without Giorgian de Arrascaeta at full fitness to start the tournament now as well - he’s the one player I’d have said can add some attacking genius and flair to their play. Instead, I think we’ll get a side that looks to outwork their opponents and plays very direct/physical, relying on some class from outside the small attacking group they’ve brought to help produce goals. But I’m not sure that approach lends itself to particularly open matches in heat/humidity against sides who will settle into low blocks.
Saudi Arabia bring a squad full of domestic league players to this tournament. While the Saudi Pro League has obviously gained lots of traction in recent years by paying crazy salaries to superstar names from top European sides, this has led to a lack of genuine attacking quality being produced domestically, as the imports tend to be more attack minded players. Both Roberto Mancini and Herve Renard (the two most recent managers of Saudi Arabia) have commented on this. They enter this tournament with Georgios Donis as manager, he’s been around the Saudi club game for a while now but is hardly prolific as a coaching name. The squad is going to set up to play defensively against Spain and Uruguay, hoping for a point in one of those two games - but it will be the same low block approach that got them their famous win against Argentina at the last World Cup. In competitive matches over the last 4 years against decent opposition, I have them at a 34% hit rate for O2.5 and 38% for BTTS.
Finally, Cape Verde - the only first time African nation in the tournament. They’re thrilled just to be here, but I wouldn’t read into that as them only being here to make up the numbers, and it wouldn’t surprise me at all if they didn’t end up 4th in this group. While Cape Verde is a country of just over 500,000, this squad is comprised of lots of players born & raised elsewhere, and there are clubs all over the world represented in this team, with a pretty strong European base. In fact, their squad value is actually higher than Saudi Arabia’s. Nonetheless, I think they’re inevitably going to have to take the same approach against the two group juggernauts as Saudi Arabia do, since they just don’t have the quality or talent to play an open game with either of Spain or Uruguay.
Ultimately, I think we could see two duller than expected pairs of initial matches with Spain and Uruguay playing Saudi Arabia and Cape Verde - as mentioned, there is room to see how those becoming lower event type games than the market is expecting - and then a final day of Spain v Uruguay in heat/altitude could be very physical as opposed to free-flowing, while Cape Verde will play Saudi Arabia. That match will likely be for third place, which means it has the potential to be open, but between the question marks over Saudi Arabia’s attacking quality / approach at this tournament, and the ability of Cape Verde to compete against better sides - when you factor in the nerves and lack of attacking talent - it might be a game that starts off more in the “can’t afford to lose” mold than in the “3 points at all costs” mentality.

While not the obvious pick in this market by any means, I think there is a case to be made for this group failing to really come to life.