World Cup Knockout Stage Betting Analysis

Well, we finally have the bracket fully set and ready to go. There's no rest, as we go from the final group stage games on Saturday into the first KO game on Sunday, with Canada taking on South Africa in Los Angeles. Here are my thoughts on how the tournament shapes out, and some prices I like for those who want to grab a rooting interest or two.

Rather than breaking down every single match, I'll go ahead and just share the 3 bigger teams I'm down on vs market, the 3 smaller countries I think have upset potential, and what that means as far as the bracket & where there might be value.

Fadeworthy

Brazil
Just not a side that passes the eye test for me at all right now. I think they looked very underwhelming in parts against both Haiti and Scotland (fair enough that they got the job done within the first 45' on both occasions), but the performance against Morocco was really lacking, and the Raphinha injury takes away from what is already a weak squad vs what Brazil have brought to this stage in decades past. The lack of quality at fullback is apparent, and the Wesley injury pre-tournament really hurt them. Finally, the decision to leave Joao Pedro out of the squad looks increasingly confusing. While Cunha has stepped up and done alright in the last two games against weaker opposition, I question how they'll fare against better sides without a great option at #9 and without Raphinha. The midfield can be run through by any athletically capable side - while Bruno Guimaraes and Casemiro are good players, the two together have flaws in terms of physical ability at this level, notably pace.
Note that the big caveat here is Ancelotti sides have failed the eye test and won trophies many times in the past. I'm just not seeing it with this particular team, but this is a very real consideration.

Germany
The Achilles heel for this side was always going to be defensive stability... they're already light in midfield and lacking a real destroyer, and the injury to Schlotterbeck is pretty disastrous for them. They haven't quite looked elite enough in terms of their attacking play to where I'd say they can offset the defensive question marks with pure goal scoring. Considering that they struggled a bit vs Ivory Coast in the group stage game I'm most willing to read into, I could see Paraguay giving them similar issues, and I have a hard time seeing them keeping France's attacking quality contained in the following round. Unlike some other teams, I'm not sure they have the matchup wins needed against France to cause problems and upset them.

England
Two consecutive matches where England have really struggled against low blocks, creating under 3 xG against Ghana and Panama combined. There are injury questions around this squad with Reece James definitely missing the next match, Declan Rice and Elliot Anderson both seemingly carrying knocks, and Bukayo Saka not fully fit yet either. The squad decisions Tuchel made just seem odd to me, there are profiles missing and others that seem needlessly overrepresented. I don't like the bench options they have in these matches, and a couple of the players that didn't make the squad seem like even more puzzling omissions. They'll face DR Congo in the rd of 32, who have built their identity around a disciplined and difficult to break down defensive shape - limiting both Portugal and Colombia to sub 1 xG, and even Uzbekistan (who on paper, had the freedom to attack as they would have wanted having been essentially eliminated) to 0.2 xG... while some of the stars in the side are stepping up and having very effective tournaments. They can match England physically and have several players with experience in England, so not as much of a fear factor here, and I think they can replicate the problems Ghana created. Beyond that, a trip to CDMX to play either Mexico or Ecuador in the altitude, something England will not be acclimated to whatsoever, which is not at all the case for either of their opponents in that round. Assuming they can get through that, Argentina await them. Tuchel is an excellent tournament manager and can create gameplans to win one-off matches with the best of them, but it's just a daunting path for what we've seen so far and the question marks about the squad, so I'm fine putting them in the fade category.

Upside Cases

Morocco
While in a tough section of the draw, with the Dutch in the rd of 32 and a likely quarterfinal matchup against France/Germany, I like what I've seen from Morocco in the tournament so far and in terms of the individual quality that is there. I do think this is a side that can hang with any top team on their day, just because they have a midfield that can compete with most non Spain/Portugal type of midfields, and real transition threat + match-winning ability in Saibari, Diaz, Hakimi, etc. The tournament run at the last WC and AFCON victory (cough) will give them confidence and experience that is vital at this stage of the tournament with the teams ahead of them. I only power rate them slightly worse than the Dutch, but I also have question marks about the Netherlands - they've over-performed xG pretty notably, and I am not going to get carried away with big wins against defensively poor sides like Sweden and Tunisia. For me, the match against Japan showed some real vulnerabilities - with Japan causing problems most every time they ventured forward (despite being without two of their best attackers in Mitoma and Minamino). Japan and Morocco are very comparable sides in terms of quality, and this feels like a match where you revert back to question marks about the attacking ability of this Dutch squad with Gakpo/Malen/Brobbey/Reijnders as creative & finishing outlets - it just is a clear step below the actual top sides, in my opinion. Assuming Morocco pull off the upset there, they have a pretty winnable rd of 16 matchup against Canada or South Africa, and then go into the big quarterfinal match against France (most likely). That "easier" match in between might help them come back down to Earth a bit, psychologically I prefer that for the second big test, versus an emotionally charged upset (there is a huge Moroccan population in the Netherlands, so I expect a bit of added tension here) directly followed by a match against a team like France. Morocco's group is likewise tough to draw too much from in terms of matches vs Scotland/Haiti, but they outplayed Brazil (5th ranked side in the world on Elo) and have built a strong track record over the past 4 years to where I think their current market price is a little too big.

Ecuador
I think Ecuador are a really interesting team. Pre-tournament they were all the hype thanks to their excellent defensive record and performances throughout CONMEBOL qualifying. Now it seems like the public has actually turned on them to an extent. This team sets up extremely well for tournament football, especially if the conditions get hot and matches become physical wars rather than technical showcases. Their underlying metrics flatter their qualifying performances, but the fact is they were a bit unlucky in a very even match against the new darlings, Ivory Coast - they then battered Curacao in a 0-0 draw that could easily have been 3 or 4 nil - and finally beat Germany, albeit a slightly rotated and questionably motivated Germany side... that's not really a "bad" group stage performance by any stretch, even if it may look that way compared to the pre-tournament hype they were getting. Playing Mexico in CDMX is going to be tough, but this is probably the one team in the tournament that actually benefits from this route... Ecuador play their home matches in pretty significant altitude and will be less fazed by this pretty big piece of what makes the Azteca so daunting. Now, it's worth noting that Mexico are far more acclimatized as far as this tournament goes, having been there for several weeks - and they'll still benefit from a raucous home support - but this is not the same level of altitude advantage they'd have over pretty much any other team at this tournament. I don't think Mexico were particularly great in terms of their group A efforts, and while they probably have another gear to ascend into, this is certainly a side that is beatable - especially in what will be a physical, low scoring matchup between two sides that will approach the game with caution and defensive robustness in mind. That feels like a repeat of the Ivory Coast match to me, which Ecuador easily could have won. Furthermore, Ecuador advancing would then see them play England - as mentioned above, I think Ecuador's defensive solidity, ability to play a low block, and physical style can cause England real problems, and the altitude will absolutely help them. I could see them making the quarterfinals and certainly would say that scenario is more likely than the odds suggest... I also fully respect that they could very well lose to Mexico!... that's betting.

Colombia
I've covered Colombia in detail already as they were the side I was highest on vs market prices pre-tournament, and so far they've done the job. Winning the group was huge, they have a comparably friendly route to a quarterfinal showdown against Argentina now. I don't think they blew anyone away with their performances against Uzbekistan and DR Congo, but they were efficient in both and never really at risk of dropping points in either contest - then they stepped up and put in a strong performance (with some rotation!) against a Portugal side that was playing for a win yesterday. That type of effort is why I've been bullish on them as a side that can genuinely get to a semifinal in this tournament - they can raise their game against big sides, they have the combination of togetherness on the pitch and the fighting spirit, alongside genuine quality and a unique mix of player profiles. I'm not so concerned with their ability to dominate lesser teams, it's more the fact that they can hang with the big teams. Assuming they stay injury free, this is a very dangerous side for anyone to play against, and I certainly think they can cause Argentina serious problems in a potential QF matchup - maybe revenge for Copa America 2024 is in order!

Rd of 32 Notes

Germany v Paraguay
Paraguay are going to set up ultra defensively here, play very physical, basically try to put in a copy of what they did to Turkiye in their crucial group stage win. This is Alfaro-ball in a nutshell. Diego Gomez is suspended, which is a pretty big blow - he's one of their better individual players, and his energy/legs would have been crucial in this. They do get Almiron back, but this is going to be Germany picking away at a low block until they can grab a goal or two. Paraguay will likely need some individual brilliance from Enciso to threaten Neuer.

France v Sweden
France can turn in a stinker where the players look unmotivated at any moment, and they can be a pretty poor team when that happens (the first half against Senegal was appalling, and I don't think they were as good against Norway's B team as 4-1 would suggest), but this Sweden side are really poor defensively, and there is just too much individual quality in the French 11 for them not to have attacking success here. Upamecano/Saliba is a CB pairing that I think can actually handle the combined Gyokeres/Isak threat pretty well, and apart from that I think Sweden just have to hope Elanga's pace can cause issues in transition.

South Africa v Canada
Won't go into detail here as this is being played in a couple of hours and I usually do a full dive on matches when starting lineups are out. I'll be releasing plays/thoughts for this match once we have those... but obviously I don't think this match is very meaningful in the grand scheme of things, either side would be a fairly considerable dog to the Netherlands/Morocco and France/Germany. Canada should win, but both Groups A & B were pretty underwhelming.

Netherlands v Morocco
Covered above already, think this is tighter than the odds imply. If this Dutch uptick in attacking output following the inclusion of Brobbey is real, I do think they can cause Morocco problems - Morocco are weakest at CB and conceding twice to Haiti is not particularly confidence-inspiring... but if they revert back to a performance like we saw vs Japan when they're up against a better team, I think Morocco have a very real chance here, their transition game is more dangerous than Japan's, who caused the Dutch backline problems every time they went forward - this was emulated by a less capable Swedish side, too, who actually outshot the Netherlands 16-10 and looked dangerous once Elanga's pace was introduced.

Portugal v Croatia
Think this could be a very slow matchup... two sides who want to control the ball, two sides with good midfields, not tons of pace in either team, some aging legs playing 4th games in quick succession, and a very hot/humid potential weather forecast. Portugal have more individual quality and really should be winning this, but they just don't fully look like a team and the front 3 are just lacking something. Croatia do have tournament experience and guile, this could be a last hurrah type of upset for Modric & co, but have to go with Portugal... they're just better in every position, and they can offset Croatia's midfield strengths - we saw what happened when Croatia came up against an equivalent/better type of team in England - wouldn't expect that here, but something like 2-0 Portugal feels very reasonable. Would imagine Portugal also have a big supporter advantage with the match being played in Toronto.

Spain v Austria
Austria are hard working and the counterpress style is interesting tactically against the Spanish possession game, I'd expect Rangnick to come up with a gameplan specific to Spain's strengths and weaknesses... but this is still a pretty David & Goliath type of matchup. Losing Nico Williams is certainly a blow for Spain, but Yamal is fit again and the midfield is just so strong with Pedri & Rodri. Austria aren't quite the same side without Christoph Baumgartner. They'd actually be a side I'd have backed pre-tournament were it not for the paths the 2nd/3rd place side in that group were likely to end up in and the aforementioned CB injury, so I have respect for what they are capable of... but this just feels like a team that have a couple hurdles too big in front of them at this tournament, and while I think they can make it competitive, Spain will be too good. They also just benefited from a match against Uruguay and Bielsa-ball, which is not too different from what Rangnick sides try to do and how Austria like to play.

USA v Bosnia & Herzegovina
USA have been impressive so far and I'd expect that to continue. Really don't think Bosnia are impressive whatsoever, I rate them as the worst side in the rd of 32. They were clearly second best against Canada and Switzerland, and about even against Qatar (who are a really poor team at this level). The USMNT getting Adams and Richards back in the 11 here should help deal with any threat Bosnia can provide, and then it's just a case of the attack producing against what should be a low block from Bosnia. The US handled two low blocks very well in Paraguay and Australia, both who I'd say are notably better than Bosnia, in the opening two matches, and I think that can continue here. Getting Pulisic back from the start would be useful, but even if he only can offer 30-45 here, I don't think the US will have too many problems.

Belgium v Senegal
VERY interesting matchup here. Two sides who have turned into fairly unpredictable teams for me, both capable of highs and both capable of lows. Significant individual quality in both, and matchwinners on both sides (more so technically for Belgium and moreso physically in Senegal). I could see paths to both teams causing one another problems here, and think both attacks are more reliable in this type of matchup than either defense. This could just be one where the team that makes fewer big mistakes at the back wins... but ultimately I'd just about side with Belgium here - their numbers against better teams and comparable KO stage type of opposition are better than Senegal, they have more individual quality, and I think with Doku back fit they have their big unlock that makes all the other attacking pieces more dangerous and able to operate with more space to play in. That being said, Senegal's pace on the break could be nightmare fuel for Belgium with the back 4 they trot out, and if Senegal clog the middle effectively and can contain the wide areas, they have a path to winning, too. One of the bigger toss ups of the rd of 32, should be a fun matchup.

Brazil v Japan
While Brazil deserve to be favorites off of underlying metrics / player quality, I do think they are too short to advance at -275 here, would give Japan more than the 30% chance they're implied at in the market right now. If they can produce the same type of combination play we saw against the Netherlands, I think they are live for an upset here. They actually already beat Brazil 3-2 last October (albeit in Tokyo), and as mentioned before, attack with similar transitional dynamism and craft to Morocco, who caused Brazil big problems. Japan are also a side comfortable defending deep, and with the lack of a true CF for Brazil and Raphinha's absence, I feel they can have success holding Brazil out. Paqueta hasn't quite shown up as that key central creative figure for Brazil at this tournament, and I would think a key part of Japan's gameplan here will be to continue containing his output with one of their defensive mids. Again, Brazil are rightful favs - but I'd have them on upset alert.

Ivory Coast v Norway
The world famous "RB Leipzig up and coming 100 million Euro winger clasico". No major thoughts on this one, I think market price of Norway -180 to advance is reasonable. I expect this to be a pretty competitive matchup, this isn't one where I have a huge difference between either side. Two very physically capable teams - Norway have an edge in terms of technical ability, skill and ability to find space in between the lines, and more individual starpower... they also have more of a pedigree in the last 2-4 years in matches against better opponents. That being said, the Ivory Coast have looked great so far this tournament. They were very competitive vs Germany (who are not all too different from Norway in terms of attacking ability and defensive vulnerability), and though it's a smaller sample, their numbers against better sides are very decent. While it's easier said than done, if they can rely on the physicality of their spine to contain Haaland, and keep tabs on Nusa/Odegaard/Sorloth - they will be able to cause problems going the other way. I think this could be a fun match with goals at either end.

Mexico v Ecuador
Already covered a bit above. Higher on Ecuador than the market is here. I also liked Mexico pre-tournament thanks to the Azteca rd of 32/16 factor - and that's still relevant here, just offset by Ecuador's comfortability with altitude and the fact that Mexico may be forced into taking the initiative here in front of their supporters, and that may not be the best fit for Aguirre tactics in a tournament setting against a very capable defensive side. Would expect plenty of cards in this one, think it will be very ugly, cagey, and physical.

England v DR Congo
Covered above. England should have enough quality to get through this, but on paper, there is a bit of room to suggest "Doctor Congo" make this competitive and difficult. Feels like a hard fought England win.

Argentina v Cape Verde
Cape Verde should roll past Argentina, and Vozinha likely scores a hat trick after megging Messi.
Argentina 3-0... they'll find a way through, and I think the Cape Verde Cinderella story, as wonderful as it's been, comes to an end here. I think Spain would have done the same had they played a more attack minded midfield and had Yamal in from the start, they were basically playing down a man with Ferran Torres and then just lacking creativity with their midfield selection on that day, maybe slightly overlooking Cape Verde - which Argentina will not, they had the Saudi Arabia experience last tournament and this side feels locked in right now.

Australia v Egypt
An interesting matchup on paper that will likely be not very interesting to watch. Both teams prefer to defend and sit back / look for counters, neither side is particularly great in possession. Egypt have the better individual quality, but Australia have a bit more of a tournament pedigree and I have them as slightly better than Egypt on my pure match-based data/ratings over the last 4 years. I have a bit of value on Australia, but I can't quite get myself interested in it when I factor in more of a player-based model. One of these matches where the first goal is vital, set pieces could play a big role, one moment of individual quality or madness makes the difference, etc.

Switzerland v Algeria
Switzerland grade out pretty well against opposition of Algeria's level, and have strong underlying metrics & results. They're the clear favorites for me here, and they also have more tournament/experience & know-how. Algeria won't have quite the support they had in KC, either. With that being said, one interesting angle here is Vladimir Petkovic - he managed the Swiss national team for years and knows much of this current squad very well. He's shown an ability to create problems for opponents in knockout rounds before, most notably beating France at Euro 2020 with Switzerland. This is going to be similar on paper where Switzerland will be the fancied side, and Algeria will be the team looking to create an upset. Furthermore, Switzerland had moments in the group stages where they looked vulnerable, particularly in 1:1 situations or via mistakes, and Algeria have enough individual quality to create that kind of havoc. Feels to me like one where I wouldn't fully trust either back line, and can see both attacks creating problems... Switzerland likely create more of those moments and capitalize on that, but Algeria +180 to advance is intriguing.

Colombia v Ghana
Colombia for me here - will probably be similar to the matchup vs DR Congo - not an easy match, but Colombia have more quality and will find a way to grind them down. Ghana will look to replicate an England type of effort, and I'd argue Colombia actually have less individual flair/creativity than England do as far as breaking down a well organized defense (which Queiroz can certainly set up on his day)... but I don't see them causing Colombia too many problems, outside of the almost 1 xG moment they produced late on with the goal against Panama, their attacking process has been horrific this tournament. Colombia should find a way through at some stage, particularly if they can overload the flanks effectively and find crosses or cutbacks to Suarez, Diaz, and any of the other attacking options they can work with.

Bracket & Futures

Futures:
All odds available at time of writing... I'm not saying to play all of these, I just think the prices are decent and if you agree with some of my logic/reasoning, feel free to tail. Or feel free to fade!

Outright Market:
Spain [+750] or Portugal [+1500]...would be the two I'd look at, but frankly I don't love too much in the tournament outrights, and would rather go game by game / round by round. These two should play each other in the rd of 16, so you have to pick which one you like more at the prices. I think Spain are the better side. Quarterfinal opposition doesn't scare me too much, and I think both Spain or Portugal set up reasonably well against France in terms of the midfield quality and potential edge that can be had there. Not
I took some Ecuador 125/1 as a longshot to trade out of, but you can accomplish that via the derivative markets below, too.

To Reach Quarterfinals:
Ecuador [+650]
Morocco [+250]
(yes, both could lose right away, and I might have doomed them already)...
Also like Ivory Coast [+750]. Would be fine with Norway +225 or Japan +400 as well depending on who you like there. This is primarily a "value if you're low on Brazil" angle... Ivory Coast the biggest price, think they're live v Norway and set up decently well on paper v Japan.

Over 7.5 Extra Time Goals [-135] &
Over 8.5 Extra Time Matches [-130]
With some heat in the picture and more teams potentially playing for draws in this rd of 32, I have value on this number if I look at historic ET rates and goals/ET rates. Would project about 8-9 goals here, and that's before potentially adjusting up a tick for draw rates with the teams at this expanded format.

Bracket:
Just for fun, here is a bracket. Obviously a bit of a root for chaos view of things with some big upsets... but kind of in line with some of the cases I've been making above.

If you want a less upset-heavy one, my quarterfinals would be France v Morocco, Spain v USA/Belgium, Brazil v England, Argentina v Colombia... France v Spain, England v Argentina... France beats Argentina in the final (revenge!).
But that's rather boring.